Рейтинг
Порталус

Russia's Economy

Дата публикации: 04 сентября 2007
Публикатор: Научная библиотека Порталус
Рубрика: RUSSIA (TOPICS) ECONOMY →
Источник: (c) http://russia.by
Номер публикации: №1188911419


Russia's economy, $1.5 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms (as of 2005), is the largest within the former Soviet bloc. It was undergoing a painful transformation from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented one with limited public ownership. Per capita income in 2005 was only $5,165 in nominal terms, although $10,758 in PPP terms. By 2004, services comprised the largest sector of the economy (61.2%), while industrial production accounted for 33.9% of GDP. The manufacturing centers around Moscow and St. Petersburg are the most important, as they were for the entire former USSR. Russia has rich energy and mineral resources, including large deposits of iron ore, coal, phosphates, and nonferrous metals, as well as one-fifth of the world's gold deposits and substantial oil and gas reserves. There are also vast forest resources. Agricultural production accounted for 4.9% of GDP in 2004. Although the share of agriculture in total output fell from 14% in 1991 to 4.9% in 2004, the collapse has led to underemployment rather than unemployment among rural workers, and therefore agriculture still accounted for more than 12% of official employment in 2002. There is an acute excess demand for goods, especially consumer goods.

Russia's economic situation deteriorated rapidly after the breakup of the Soviet Union, which destroyed major economic links. President Yeltsin's 1992 economic reform program slashed defense spending, eliminated the old centralized distribution system, established private financial institutions, decentralized foreign trade, and began a program of privatizing state owned enterprises. Success was not immediate, however, as the GDP declined by over 12% in 1994 and 4% in 1995. By then, 25% of the population was living in poverty, corruption was rampart, and segments of the economy had gone "underground" to escape backbreaking taxes and bureaucratic regulation. However, government policies kept unemployment at the relatively low rate of 8%, even though there was no money to pay salaries and pensions. A stabilization program enacted in 1995 tightened the budget, liberalized trade, and lowered inflation through noninflationary financing of the budget deficit. Although the economy declined by 3.6% in 1996, segments of the economy were showing signs of recovery. In 1997, overall GDP registered its first positive growth, albeit only 0.9%. Inflation moderated to 11.3% from 21.8% in 1996, and unemployment fell from 9.3% to 9%. In a major privatization program, the government turned over to the growing private sector thousands of enterprises.

However, in 1998, the effects of the 1997 Asian financial crisis swept the economy, propelling a massive outflow of foreign investment. In August 1998 it became the Russian financial crisis as the government defaulted on payments due on $40 billion in ruble bonds and allowed the ruble to depreciate. Real GDP fell 4.9% in 1998 as inflation shot up to 84.5%. However, Russia weathered the crisis well: in 1999, one year after the crisis, real GDP increased by the highest percentage since the fall of the Soviet Union, the ruble stabilized, inflation was modest, and investment began to increase again. In 1999, real GDP increased 5.4%, and in 2000, a strong 8.3% while inflation fell to 36.5% in 1999 and then to 20.2% in 2000. The global economic slowdown after 2001 served to decelerate but not reverse economic recovery as GDP growth fell to 4.9% in 2001 and then to 3.5% in 2002. Inflation fell to 18.6% in 2001, and 16.5% in 2002, above predictions of 11-13% mainly because of increased fuel costs. Official unemployment, which peaked at 11.8% and 11.7% in 1998 and 1999, moderated to an estimated 8% in 2002, down from 8.9% in 2001.

From 2001-05, real GDP growth averaged 6.1%, and inflation averaged 14.9%. From 2000 to 2005, Russia ran trade and budget surpluses. GDP growth was forecast at 5.8% in 2005; inflation hit 11.7% in 2004, and was predicted to near 13% in 2005, well above a revised target of 10%. Although real GDP growth had slowed by 2005, high oil prices were expected to limit the extent of the deceleration, especially in 2006. Even though proceeds from the sale of oil strengthen the ruble, damaging competitiveness, high oil prices have not compensated for a lack of effective governmental economic policy. Oil production began to stagnate in late 2004; oil companies must look beyond the easy-to-tap oil reserves of western Siberia for new fields. Also, a string of investigations launched against Yukos, a major oil company, culminating in the arrest of its CEO, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, in the fall of 2003, raised concerns that President Vladimir Putin was granting more influence to forces within his government that desire to reassert state control over the economy. Companies looking to invest in Russia discover a plethora of rules that are often changed and capriciously applied; the large, unwieldy, corrupt bureaucracy is impossible to avoid. The gas, electricity, and railway industries are dominated by inefficient monopolies, particularly Gazprom, the state gas monopoly. Ownership structures are opaque, not transparent, but according to some estimates, 20 large conglomerates account for up to 70% of Russian GDP. Capital flight was a net $33 billion in 2004. These problems must be addressed if full economic reform is to be achieved.

Опубликовано на Порталусе 04 сентября 2007 года

Новинки на Порталусе:

Сегодня в трендах top-5


Ваше мнение?



Искали что-то другое? Поиск по Порталусу:


О Порталусе Рейтинг Каталог Авторам Реклама