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FUTURE OF RUSSIA'S NATURAL WEALTH

Дата публикации: 07 сентября 2018
Автор(ы): Dmitry Rundkvist
Публикатор: Шамолдин Алексей Аркадьевич
Рубрика: RUSSIA (TOPICS)
Номер публикации: №1536329686


Dmitry Rundkvist, (c)

By Academician Dmitry Rundkvist, Academic Secretary, RAS Department of Geology, Geophysics, Geochemistry and Mining

National mineral resources have a key role to play in promoting Russia's economic development in general and a factor which determines the economic well-being of its people. Of decisive importance for the really effective uses of this national asset is stringent state control combined with the introduction of new energy-saving technologies of the mining and processing of raws on the basis of the latest achievements of the domestic and international mining and geological research.

WHAT DO WE HAVE?

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, this country has in its possession 22 percent of the world's forests, 20 percent of fresh water resources and 16 percent of the world's mineral and raw material resources, including 32 percent of natural gas (the world leader), 12 percent of oil and 12 percent of coal.

Russia's share of the world resources of iron and tin exceeds 27 percent, 36 percent of nickel, 11 percent of copper, 20 percent of cobalt, 12 percent of lead, 16 percent of zink and 40 percent of metals of the platinum group. And last, but not least, Russia accounts for one third of the world's resources of gold(*).

This country boasts scores of what we call super-giant deposits of ores and other minerals of which less than one half is being actively developed now. These include the Norilsk field (copper, nickel, platinoids), Kursk Magnetic Anomaly and the Kostomuksha deposits in Karelia (iron), Yakutia (diamonds) and the Olympiada Gold Field in Siberia. In the present deplorable state of our affairs, there is no development work in progress now even at such deposits of a truly unique size as the Sukhoi Log (gold, platinum)(*), the Udokan field (copper with associated gold and silver) in Pribaikalye, and Tomtor (niobium, thorium and strontium) in Yakutia.

The total cost of the raws mined in Russia annually in recent time is estimated at 95-105 bin dollars at the current world prices (in the United States this figure is 1.4-1.5 times higher, and it is about the same in China and much smaller in all other countries). However one has to bear in mind that all of this potential natural wealth turns into tangible reality only through the vast amount of work of geologists, miners,


* See: Yu. Safonov, "Future of Russian Gold' Science in Russia, No. 1, 2000.-Ed.

* See: N. Laverov et al. "Gold and Platinum of Sukhoi Log", Science in Russia, No. 2, 1999.-Ed.

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technologists, experts in ore-dressing and metallurgists. In this, like all the other countries, the time interval from the discovery of a deposit to the start of its industrial use is 5 to 10 years in the traditional regions and 10 to 15 years in new and undeveloped ones. Development of mineral deposits calls for considerable investments into geological studies, prognostication, prospecting and initial development as well as the construction of the relevant industrial facilities, infrastructure and access roads.

The size of a country's natural wealth, however, has no direct effect on the living standards of its people. As for Russia, it lags far behind the developed countries in the per capita volume of consumption of mineral raws. According to the statistics of Russia's Ministry of Natural Resources, one person in the United States consumes some 900 dollars' worth of all sorts of natural resources per year as compared with only 400 dollars' worth in Russia. And one also has to admit that the mining of mineral raws in this country dropped by an average figure of 25 percent from 1991 to 1998 while this figure rose by 12 percent in the rest of the world.

"COMPETING FOR RESOURCES OF THE PLANET"

In discussing the importance and the levels of utilization of Russia's natural wealth, one has to bear in mind the major world trends, or tendencies, in this respect. First, there is a steady growth of the demand for mineral raws in both the developed and the developing countries. The United States, for example, which accounts for only 4 percent of the world population, today consumes 20 percent of the global raw materials resources, although its own mineral wealth is being utilized 2 to 3 times as efficiently as in Russia.

There is no end in sight for the contest for raws, above all fuel and energy raws, which we have in such an abundance, incidentally, which means continued clashes of interests among the industrially developed countries over Russia's natural wealth. As sociologists tell us, the world population growth up to 7.5-10 bin people by the year 2050 will push up by 25 percent the current level of consumption of mineral and raw material resources.

An expert in the field-Academician Igor Gramberg-suggests two likely scenarios for the development of the world fuel and energy resources (worked out by the World Council on Energy). According to the first one, by 2020 their world consumption will be doubled-from 12.5 to 24.7 bin t fuel; according to the second scenario, the growth will only be from 12.5 to 16 bin t. The proved resources of oil in countries like the United States, Canada, Great Britain and Norway will last for not more than 6-8 years, and those of natural gas for 14 years only This bears out the opinion of Academician Nikolai Shilo who predicted an acute contest for the resources of this planet. In the face of this prospect, the central task today consists in foiling all kinds of attempts to split Russia and its lavish natural wealth into some isolated territories-raw materials appendages of the developed nations.

The second major world tendency in the uses of mineral wealth consists in a growing integration of the natural resources' potential of most countries in the world-a process of economic globalization accompanied by further physical and numerical growth of transnational companies and holdings operating on an international scale. This offers enterprises of this kind considerable "leeway" in ensuring an effective allocation of their capital among various units. In this general system the national interests of individual countries can be taken care of only by their national legislation.

And the third and very obvious tendency can be described as a mounting ecological and social "load" upon the cost of the developed mineral resources. This makes economically feasible the exploitation of only the world's biggest deposits with the proved resources that will last for ten and more years. This orientation at big, extra large and giant sites as the basis of the world economy of the future has been reflected in the sustainable development concept adopted in 1992 at Rio-de-Janeiro and also in the considerations of the International Union of Geologists and in the International Program of Geological Correlation. But as for Russia, it will make far better economic sense for the next 5 to 10 years to develop small businesses at smaller and medium-size, but also rich mineral deposits. This should be accompanied by the development of model dressing factories and promoting more effective forms of labour organization.

And now the fourth tendency One has to bear in mind the obvious and successive drop in world prices of raws (tin, uranium, silver, etc.) which makes profitable only those enterprises which increasingly rely on new high-tech methods of mining, extraction and processing of raws. Let me give one example. Over the past few decades, and also in the past few months of 1999-2000, the world metals market saw sharp changes of prices with a general tendency for their reduction, with the only exception of palladium. At the same time 1999 saw an exceptional jump-of 2 to 3 times-of the oil prices which helped improve the economic plight of this country But the start of the year 2000 saw a drop of these prices which is likely to cause considerable problems in our national economy A ray of hope in this situation is offered by the usual lag of 6 to 9 months of the gas price relative to the price of oil. It is the network of gas pipelines from Russia to Europe which can guarantee the stability of our economic relations with Western companies and stable foreign currency returns from them.

All of these tendencies which determine the development of the base of natural resources of different countries, their integration into the world economic system depend, above all, on two major factors-the stability of national economic policies of different countries and the "transparency" of the economic activities of firms with their key indexes published through the Internet. It is these factors that laid the foundation of success of countries like the United States, Australia, Canada and Norway And ignoring these factors, on the other hand, is fraught with considerable problems for developing countries rich in natural resources and, unfortunately, for Russia. It was not

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accidental that, according to Russia's Ministry of Natural Resources, foreign firms have invested less than one bin dollars into the development of its mineral resources over the past decade.

SNAGS AND PROBLEMS

On the other hand, this country is facing a host of objective problems in the development of its natural resources.

First, there are some very adverse conditions in this country for the exploitation of mineral deposits with most of the fields being located in the northern regions, including permafrost zones where, as a rule, there are no developed infrastructures and transport facilities which makes it necessary to rely on what we call shift methods of work. Another snag in the economic development of our polar territories is the fact that the Northeastern Passage practically does not function any more.

Secondly, the economic links which functioned in the former Soviet Union have all been practically severed and defy any practical attempts at their restoration since the bulk of the natural resources of the CIS countries has been sold to foreign firms. One striking example to that effect is Kazakhstan where the world's biggest chromium deposit at Kilmpersai is being developed by Japan. Its copper-molybdenum deposits at Jeskazgan and Kounrad are being developed by South Korea and its goldfields are being mined by Israel.

And there are also some geological problems-above all the reproduction of deposits which today make up for the volume of extraction only by one half and even one third. This applies to most of the mineral deposits (uranium, apatites, copper, nickel, platinum, etc.).

Due to our obsolete machinery and equipment we are now lagging behind the world level of raws-processing technologies. In his article entitled "Mineral Resources in the Strategy of Development of Russia's Economy" published in St. Petersburg in 1999, Vladimir Putin stressed that more than 70 percent of machinery at mining enterprises is over 10 years old- twice as much as such equipment in the developed countries.

Due to price disproportions and a lack of legal guarantees plundering of natural resources has become commonplace in recent years here with the users picking up the "richest" slices and ignoring the rest as something worthless. There has been practically no financial backing for the development of technical innovations and the national research potential has been practically confined to oblivion.

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Finally, and even more important, has been a paradoxical situation which has emerged in Russia during the 1990s when as a result of the policy of taxation and disproportionate growth of the prices of electricity (by 24 thousand times) and transport (by 20 thousand times) we kind of lost from 30 to 60 percent of our tangible and economically viable mineral resources. Today it is a loss-making job to mine gold in our northern territories since mining costs exceed the price of the noble metal at the London Stock Exchange. As a result more than 50 percent of the country's gold deposits have become loss-makers. And things are very much the same with the underground mining of coal and other deposits.

WHAT'S TO BE DONE?

In a short-term perspective-for the next one to three years-the main task consists in regulating the use of mineral resources with the help of economic controls. Expert recommendations to this effect have been sufficiently analyzed at the appropriate research centers of the Russian Academy of Sciences and also by specialists of the research institutes of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation. The main points of their recommendations are as follows:

What we need are appropriate state regulations of the uses of our mineral wealth (tax, price and customs controls), control of the observance of licence agreements, including areas covering the effectiveness of the development of deposits, observance of the technical norms of extraction, processing and export of raws.

Of considerable importance would be a transition to a system of rent payments, which guarantees steady payments to the budget and stimulates the activities of agencies in charge of deposits development, effective labor recruitment and due care for the final products.

At the same time we should keep in the focus our internal investment opportunities and promote the development of "home-made" mining machinery and equipment, piping, ore crushers, etc.

Finally, steps should be taken to specify some articles in the mining legislation to promote and encourage broader direct investments into the industry.

This kind of federal economic policy would rule out a repetition of the 1999 situation when this country suffered considerable losses (up to 10 bin dollars) through oil exports at prices much lower than the world market ones. And - what is really surprising - these same prices on Russia's domestic market were higher than contract prices for export. Or take another example - GAZPROM shares were sold to the foreign Ruhrgas Company at prices, according to experts, which were 0.1 to 0.05 of the world market analogues.

Another point. As things stand now, there is no accurate, and often any other economic or geological information from individual companies, joint-stock ventures and/or other consumers.

And that means that it is often simply impossible to get an accurate idea of the volume of the proved resources at this or that site, to say nothing of production costs, the scale of production, profits allocation and payments to the federal or local budgets. That is why it is necessary to set up what I would call a common information center on mineral and raw materials resources at the Government of the Russian Federation with the task of formulating the national economic policy on the development, export and import of raws.

And one more thing to be kept in mind. High costs of transportation today encourages what we call comprehensive processing of raw material resources on the spot, including waste disposal or utilization and the development of local machine-building plants and reorientation of the existing ones. All of these things are of great importance for the economic growth of such regions. But putting these things into practice calls for scientifically substantiated programs, which are being developed now by the combined efforts of RAS centers of research, geological committees of members of the Federation, branch institutes of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the administrative bodies of key mining provinces. And where there is a science-production-administration alliance, so to speak (as in the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions, the Republics of Karelia, Komi and Tatarstan), the substantial progress has been achieved in the exploration, development and uses of the natural resources.

And problems of a different kind come on the agenda if one thinks of development prospects of the country's mineral and raw materials bases over the next 3 to 5 years. Of central importance here is the task of improvement of the technologies of mining, dressing, extraction and processing of raws. It is necessary to bring into the sphere of industrial utilization lean ores and deeper lying ones and also new and non-traditional raws. This should be backed by R&D results of the last decade, including, above all, nanomineralogy as the basis for the production of finely dispersed gold, platinum

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group minerals from black shales which pose problems of enrichment. All of these things add up to a vast potential for boosting the extraction of noble metals.

And it is just as important to apply new machinery and production lines in the development of deposits, including the recently developed combines at open-cut coal mines, drills for the making of shafts and extraction of diamond-bearing kimberlites, and vibration machinery - more economical than the traditional one by an order of magnitude - for rock crushing and dressing.

Broader use should be made of the systems of what we call cluster and underground leaching, primarily in the mining of uranium, gold, manganese, copper and other elements, and not only from friable, but also from bedrock with previous blast crushing. It is also very productive to bring into play biotechnological methods of ore dressing (developed already is a water-coal fuel which has demonstrated its efficiency in the test runs of the Belovo (Kuzbas)-Novosibirsk coal pipeline).

Finally, it is necessary to put into practice the methods of extraction from ores of associate elements which is especially important in the development of resources of the traditional mining regions like the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly, the apatite deposits on the Kola Peninsula and so on, and also of the supergiants like Sukhoi Log near Lake Baikal and Tomtor in Yakutia.

And last, a brief look at the development prospects of this country's raw materials base over a longer period of 5 to 15 years. The key role here will belong to the achievements of what we call fundamental geological science-both national and international. And I would like to lay special emphasis here on its international aspect at that stage because we already have conducted some joint studies with our counterparts from the United States, Japan, members of the European Economic Community on a number of international and Russian study projects.

Geological science today has everything necessary for producing quantitative assessments of prognosticated resources, substantiated identification of the major objects at early stages of studies of deposits, for the development and application of what we call express methods of identification of yet unproved big and super-big deposits of mineral fuel and metals. What is more, in our day and age geology has acquired global dimensions. New areas of research have emerged thanks to widespread application of computer modelling and GIS- technologies which make it possible to combine in the same geological coordinates economic, geological, geophysical and geochemical objects and their parameters. Among them are global metallogeny as the basis for a geopolitical analysis of the universal base of natural resources; global geoecology which helps put into practice the concept ofsustainable development and analyze trends of global environmental and climatic changes; global seismology and volcanology which supplies data for natural disaster predictions and minimizing their aftermath.

Of decisive role in translating these studies into reality are our federal study projects, including "Global Changes of Environment and Climate", "World Ocean" and "Resources- Saving Technologies". Missing on this list, however, is a key program which could be entitled as "Global Regularities of Siting of Mineral Resources as the Basis for Long-Term Prognostication of the Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Development of Russia". Studies within this framework will practically map out prospects of development of various regions, the relative value of their mineral resources with the identification of those in deficit, and also potential zone of conflicts-clashes of interests of various countries in a perspective from 2010 to 2015.

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Unlike any other science, geology in the 20th century introduced some basic changes into our ideas about the structure and evolution of the Earth, the bottom of the ocean, the global distribution of world resources and had in general a considerable impact on our present-day world outlook. This was noted in the book "A New Look at the Earth" by the Japanese geophysicist Seio Ueda-a Foreign Member of the Russian Academy. He pointed out that out of all the modern sciences the most rapidly developing ones are sciences on the Earth. In recent time and especially in those branches of science which investigate the solid part of this planet, some truly phenomenal changes have taken place which seldom happen in any other areas of knowledge. These changes are very important and are of interest not only to an expert scholar, but to any educated individual.

Summing it up, today and in the perspective for the next few years geological and mining sciences will determine to a considerable extent the progress of Russia's three main sections of the national economy: of fuel-energy and mineral resources, regional geoecology and the geoecology of the biggest megalopolises and problems of prevention of natural calamities (earthquakes in the first place) and minimizing the aftermath thereof. This country with its wealth of fuel, energy, mineral resources, which is also in possession of a powerful scientific and technological potential, can and must provide for a worthy living standards of its people in the 21st century.

Опубликовано на Порталусе 07 сентября 2018 года

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